―What if‖ exercises based on gravity model estimates show that an improvement in
overall multimodal performance would significantly boost exports. Taking into
account the ―virtuous cycle‖ between multimodal transport performance and trade as
well as the complex reallocations of exports that occur when economies reform
simultaneously, the counterfactual simulations show that a 5% improvement in
iv The Economic Impact of Enhanced Multimodal Connectivity in the APEC Region
overall multimodal performance would increase exports to the world by nearly
$500bn annually or an increase of 4%. The range for individual member economies
is between 2% and 6% of baseline exports. In dollar terms, this equates to an impact
gain of between $850m and $115bn per member economy