Finally, as an important complement to the previous four explanations, there may be no safe haven for investors in local currency-denominated assets. Management of local commercial banks may also engage in theft, raising the probability that these banks will default. The government could guarantee bank deposits but in most emerging markets there is a significant risk that the government may default. In fact, in some emerging market countries, such as Indonesia and Thailand, there was no liquid market for government securities at the time of the crisis. In the view of many investors during the Asian crisis, the probability of government default went up as the value of firms and tax receipts went down. The only government that actually defaulted on domestic currency debt during the crisis was Russia, but a number of other governments appear to have come close. Thus when the value of firms began to fall in each
emerging market country, both domestic and foreign investors tried to withdraw their money from all domestic-currency denominated assets, leading to greater capital outflows for countries with weaker corporate governance. Note that there can be a net capital outflow even if foreign investors remain confident. A loss of confidence in local currency-denominated assets by domestic investors can be just as damaging.