c. Global ageing
Out of the eight phenomena selected as factors in the future management of people,
global ageing is the one that presents a greater degree of certainty, as all
developments which determine the evolution of world population in the next two or
three decades have already taken place and are known.
This problem is not exclusive to the so-called developed countries. It is a global process
which, despite having started sooner in those countries, is already under way in the
emergent economies where, by the way, it will happen much faster.
In China, the fertility index is down to 1.79 - substantially lower than the 2.1
replacement threshold; in fact, it only reaches this value in some of the interior
provinces, and in the more developed coastal provinces it does not reach over 1.5. In
India, the national fertility rate is still 2.81. However, in a group of states with a
combined population of over two hundred million people, that rate has already fallen
below the replacement threshold.
A quickly ageing population combined with an increasingly scarce work force lead to an
increase in the ratio of dependence. It is estimated that the working population in
Europe (15-64 years of age) will decrease by 20.8 million people between 2005 and
2030, and the proportion of older dependents will increase from 1 for each 4.2 to 1 for
each 2.41 working individuals between 2000 and 2030.
Figure