This paper describes aspects of the NOAA Tsunami
Forecasting System, composed of two primary components—
the DART II measurement system and the MOST
modeling system. In the years since its initial funding in
1996, many lessons have been learned, and progress has
been steady in five areas: tsunameters, moorings, telecommunications,
software algorithms, and forecast modeling.
These scientific and engineering advances at NOAA’s
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) have
led to a highly-reliable measurement system that acquires
and delivers tsunami data from deep ocean locations between
the tsunami generating event and distant at-risk
communities, and transmits these data in near real time to
Tsunami Warning Centers and the Internet. The forecasting
methodology employs the MOST numerical model to
ingest and formally invert the real-time, DART water
height values to provide site- and event- specific forecasts;
this methodology has been tested and validated through
numerous hindcasts of historical data and, most significantly,
through a real-time, “blind forecast” conducted
during the 17 November 2003 event. New technologies
and methodologies are envisioned and must be studied and
exploited where possible to provide improved warning
guidance for tsunami hazards. The recent events in the
Indian Ocean are a stark reminder that the value of these
efforts should not be underestimated.