An excellent analytical piece, Knun Thitinan. You said that the politial landscape at the moment is ripe for a third-party alternative. I couldn't agree more, but the problem is the way a political party being set up in Thailand is just like someone's setting up a private company instead of a genuine political institutions that most countries with mature democracy have. Case in point, hasn't Thaksin mentioned in his recent interview that he would set up two more alternative parties in the region that Pheu Thai popularity may be in the wane?
This will end in a complete mess, its a no win situation, if Taksin get's off his prison term all hell will break out. Also he will be after his confiscated billions! Also within no time he will be back in politics with revenge on his mind.
The other side is the Amnesty gets thrown out and we have the same stale mate we've had since the last election. Then wait and see what happens at the next elections for probably the same red against yellow policy's without any real progress.