Groundwater decline is widespread, yet its implications for natural systems are poorly
understood. Previous research has revealed links between groundwater depth and tree
condition; however, critical thresholds which might indicate ecological ‘tipping points’ associated
with rapid and potentially irreversible change have been difficult to quantify. This
study collated data for two dominant floodplain species, Eucalyptus camaldulensis (river
red gum) and E. populnea (poplar box) from 118 sites in eastern Australia where significant
groundwater decline has occurred. Boosted regression trees, quantile regression and
Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between tree
condition and groundwater depth. Distinct non-linear responses were found, with groundwater
depth thresholds identified in the range from 12.1 m to 22.6 m for E. camaldulensis
and 12.6 m to 26.6 m for E. populnea beyond which canopy condition declined abruptly.
Non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition in these species may be linked to rooting
depth, with chronic groundwater decline decoupling trees from deep soil moisture
resources. The quantification of groundwater depth thresholds is likely to be critical
for management aimed at conserving groundwater dependent biodiversity. Identifying
thresholds will be important in regions where water extraction and drying climates may
contribute to further groundwater decline.
Groundwater decline is widespread, yet its implications for natural systems are poorly
understood. Previous research has revealed links between groundwater depth and tree
condition; however, critical thresholds which might indicate ecological ‘tipping points’ associated
with rapid and potentially irreversible change have been difficult to quantify. This
study collated data for two dominant floodplain species, Eucalyptus camaldulensis (river
red gum) and E. populnea (poplar box) from 118 sites in eastern Australia where significant
groundwater decline has occurred. Boosted regression trees, quantile regression and
Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis were used to investigate the relationship between tree
condition and groundwater depth. Distinct non-linear responses were found, with groundwater
depth thresholds identified in the range from 12.1 m to 22.6 m for E. camaldulensis
and 12.6 m to 26.6 m for E. populnea beyond which canopy condition declined abruptly.
Non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition in these species may be linked to rooting
depth, with chronic groundwater decline decoupling trees from deep soil moisture
resources. The quantification of groundwater depth thresholds is likely to be critical
for management aimed at conserving groundwater dependent biodiversity. Identifying
thresholds will be important in regions where water extraction and drying climates may
contribute to further groundwater decline.
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