V. HOW DO INVESTORS MANEUVER BETWEEN THE PRODUCTS?
covered-senior
We believe that one of the reasons for dislocations in spreads between unsecured and secured bank debt has
been the limited overlap of senior unsecured and covered bond investors. Many investors still cannot directly
play opportunities that arise between both asset classes. The main reasons for the limited overlap are in our
view: (1) central banks and sovereign wealth funds are large buyers of covered bonds but not of senior unsecured debt, (2) banks are one of the biggest investor groups in covered bonds and regulatory provisions favour
covered bonds, (3) asset managers and pension funds often have higher limits for covered bonds than for
senior unsecured bank debt, and (4) both asset classes are usually bought for different dedicated portfolios. In
addition, covered bonds are sometimes used to enhance the yield of sovereign bond portfolios without diluting
the average rating, or added to genuine credit portfolios to improve the portfolio rating quality.
Anecdotal evidence from analysing order books over time, however, suggests that the overlap in the investor base has increased in recent years due to a higher participation of credit investors in new covered bond
issues. We expect this trend to continue over the coming years and credit investors to account for a growing
portion of covered bond order books going forward, not least because of the bail-in risk for European senior
unsecured debt with maturity dates of 2016 and beyond and the relative value opportunities this will create
between these two asset classes.
Furthermore, in the current low-yield environment, spreads between covered bonds and senior unsecured
paper are to a large extent driven by technicals which maintain spreads at a level below fundamental values.