Abstract
In this study, we developed the Patient Access Area Model by using a Geographic information system (GIS), and, in order
to evaluate the balance of medical supply and demand in the fu
ture in small areas, simulated patients' access to hospitals.
We set the accessible area by patients' tr
ansit time for each hospita
l. The patients living in
each
500 meters mesh were
allowed to enter hospitals only within the access area. The hospi
tals have its limit to admit patients based on their actual
numbers of beds. We distributed inpatients from each mesh acr
oss hospitals. For the evaluation of demand, if patients could
not be distributed to the hospitals within the accessible area, we defin
ed the situation as “over
-
demand.” As a result,
although it was expected that over 9000 inpatients will not
receive inpatient care in a southwest area region in the studied
prefecture, most of the over-demand is in the densely regions
along large traffic lines in 2030. Using this model, we can
know demand for local health resources more clearly. This method is very useful to plan geographical resource allocation in
medical services.