This study forecasts the route market for the air cargo carriers by
taking into consideration the economic trade between countries
and the evolution of the industrial structures. Rather than spending
a considerable amount of time and money for collecting data as is
common in the forecast methods found in the literature, this study
developed an analytical model of the choices of an air cargo carrier
shipper for estimating carrier route market shares using the
existing database.
A case study on Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport found that
for TPE–HKG limited capacity hinders BR from taking a large share
of export volume. Larger capacity type aircraft are suggested for
this route. Although there may be an increased stationary time for
consolidating the shipments for a large aircraft, the short route
distance of TPE–HKG, the strong demand, the frequent flights and
the low shipping charge of BR can offset the negative effects
brought by the increased stationary inventory loss.
The results show that CI and BR carried an increasing volume of
export from Taiwan to Hong Kong because of increased trade with
China via the latter. The major exports from Taiwan to Japan are in
agricultural and electronics industries. There are, however, differences
between the outputs of our model and the actual data as
well as between the results of the Grey model and actual traffic on
TPE–HKG partly because of rapidly expanding exports to mainland.
The Grey model’s underestimation of exports may be because it
does not captured the quick recovery in traffic after September 11
2001.
This study forecasts the route market for the air cargo carriers by
taking into consideration the economic trade between countries
and the evolution of the industrial structures. Rather than spending
a considerable amount of time and money for collecting data as is
common in the forecast methods found in the literature, this study
developed an analytical model of the choices of an air cargo carrier
shipper for estimating carrier route market shares using the
existing database.
A case study on Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport found that
for TPE–HKG limited capacity hinders BR from taking a large share
of export volume. Larger capacity type aircraft are suggested for
this route. Although there may be an increased stationary time for
consolidating the shipments for a large aircraft, the short route
distance of TPE–HKG, the strong demand, the frequent flights and
the low shipping charge of BR can offset the negative effects
brought by the increased stationary inventory loss.
The results show that CI and BR carried an increasing volume of
export from Taiwan to Hong Kong because of increased trade with
China via the latter. The major exports from Taiwan to Japan are in
agricultural and electronics industries. There are, however, differences
between the outputs of our model and the actual data as
well as between the results of the Grey model and actual traffic on
TPE–HKG partly because of rapidly expanding exports to mainland.
The Grey model’s underestimation of exports may be because it
does not captured the quick recovery in traffic after September 11
2001.
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