With a design satisfying state-of-the-art methodological criteria our experiment has established that the timing of the
resolution of risk matters for investment behavior. This finding cannot be explained by the main economic theories of decision
making under risk (EUT and CPT). In contrast, by incorporating participants’ anticipated emotions into the analysis we
were able to provide an explanation. What investors anticipate are feelings during the time interval that elapses between the
investment decision and the resolution of the risk. It turns out that, dependent on the probability of a successful investment,
delaying the resolution of the risk makes different kinds of these anticipatory emotions more prominent. Negative anticipatory
emotions (like worry) become more important in case of a high probability of success, whereas positive emotions (like
hope) gain prominence in case of a low probability. The action tendency of the former is to discourage investment while the
latter encourage investment. We also observed a general dislike of delay, which reinforces this negative emotional action
tendency in the high probability condition but counterbalances the positive emotional action tendency in the low probability
condition. Together, these findings help explain why we observed a resolution timing effect under high probability but not
under low probability.
Our study provides support for Keynes’ claim that ‘‘animal spirits’’ are an important driving factor in investment behavior.
Statements by (other) successful investors, like the famous long-time CEO of General Electric John (Jack) Welch, emphasizing
the importance of gut feelings, also support this view (see Akerlof & Schiller, 2009). In fact, the tendency to prefer early resolution
and to assume less risk under delayed resolution if the probability of losing is small, can clarify several phenomena
observed in the field. For example, it would help explain why individuals are willing to pay so much for insurance policies,
even when the maximal possible loss is small. Also, it may shed a new light on why people seem reluctant to take on investment
risks (e.g. the equity premium puzzle). Our results suggest that this would particularly hold for cases where the
chances of running losses are relatively small and the resolution of risk is distant in time. In line with this, lotteries with
a low probability of a large gain are typically resolved days or weeks after the purchase of a ticket. While gambling devices
offering ‘‘on the spot’’ resolution, such as scratching cards (‘‘instants’’) or roulette, show lesser skewed prospects, that is, better
odds of winning and lower maximal returns (