Assume the target company has 10 million shares outstanding. The stock last traded at $9 per share, which reflects the target’s value on a stand-alone basis. How much should the acquiring firm offer?
Estimate of target’s value = $163.9 million
Target’s current value = $ 90.0 million
Merger premium = $ 73.9 million
Presumably, the target’s value is increased by $73.9 million due to merger synergies, although realizing such synergies has been problematic in many mergers.
The offer could range from $9 to $163.9/10 = $16.39 per share.
At $9, all merger benefits would go to the acquiring firm’s shareholders.
At $16.39, all value added would go to the target firm’s shareholders.
The graph on the next slide summarizes the situation.
Nothing magic about crossover price.
Actual price would be determined by bargaining. Higher if target is in better bargaining position, lower if acquirer is.
If target is good fit for many acquirers, other firms will come in, price will be bid up. If not, could be close to $9.
Acquirer might want to make high “preemptive” bid to ward off other bidders, or low bid and then plan to go up. Strategy is important.
Do target’s managers have 51% of stock and want to remain in control?
What kind of personal deal will target’s managers get?