The electricity generation sector accounts for 80% of the cumulative
difference in consumption between the two cases (Fig. 8).
However, on the other hand, North American natural gas
resources have amplified by more than 1800 trillion cubic feet
(Tcf) over the past 3 years, bringing the total natural gas resource
base to more than 3000 Tcf, a level that could supply current
consumption for well over 100 years (World watch calculation).
Since 1990, shale gas production has already increased fivefold
(from 1990 to 2010 the use of shale gas expanded from covering
10% of US supplies, to 50%) and still increasing rapidly contributing
to a sharp decline in the gas prices and collapse in North American
market for imported LNG. As per (Medlock, 2010) report the total
recoverable resources of shale gas in North America are 585 Tcf
(total US—488 Tcf and Canada—95 Tcf). The actual volume of
recoverable shale gas remains imprecise as supplies are still being
mapped and evaluated. The Shale gas is also playing an important
role in Canada and the National Energy Board estimates Canada’s
volume to be 1000 trillion cubic feet, with similar reserves in the
United States (National Energy Board, 2009). In Canada, there are
major shale gas ‘‘plays’’ in the Horn River Basin and the Montney
Formation, both in British Columbia. Major exploration for
shale gas is also occurring in the Colorado Group in Alberta and
Saskatchewan, the Utica Shale in Quebec, and the Horton Bluff
Shale in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia as shown in Fig. 9
(National Energy Board, 2009).
The development of this expanded resource may be able to
meet significantly increased levels of demand without significant
increases in prices. Shale gas alone is expected to grow more than
50% of the supply portfolio by 2030. Indigenous natural gas
supplies reduce the need for LNG imports into North America—
which become a matter of choice rather than necessity.
As a result of increasing shale gas production in USA it has
become less attractive to develop LNG projects which depend
wholly or partially on that market. Import terminals for LNG in
the USA are running at 10% of capacity, which was until recently
expected to become increasingly dependent on imports, might
even become a net exporter of natural gas in the long term. With
saturation in North American market, more LNG from other parts
will also find its way to Europe as Europe has excellent infrastructure
in terms of a large number of reception terminals for
LNG with more under construction or planned.
Canada will also feel the energy market shifts. For example, the
expansion of US supplies means that Canada will need to find new
export opportunities for its natural gas. However, this should not
cause problems, analysts say, because supplies of conventional
natural gas are declining elsewhere while fuel demands for
transportation and electricity are growing (Edward, 2010).