Fig. S5. Changes of the intensity of the NHSM circulation projected by CMIP5 models. The NHSM circulation index is defined by the vertical shear of the zonal
winds between 850 and 200 hPa for JJAS season averaged over (0–20°N, 120°W–120°E). The time series are obtained from the best five models’ (ACCESS1,
CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) multimodel mean (MMM) projection for the historical run period (1980–2005) and the RCP45 run period
(2006–2100). The selection of the five best models was based on a metrics for evaluation of the global precipitation climatology (1). The shading denotes the
MMM’s uncertainties, which are determined by 1 SD of the individual models’ departure from the MMM. The anomaly was obtained from the climatology of
1980–2005. A 5-y moving average was applied to all time series.