Fiscal policy
Fiscal policy in the United States of America is expected to remain restrictive, but less severe than in 2014. Real
federal government spending is forecast to decline by less than 1 per cent in 2015–2016. It is also assumed that
the debt ceiling will be increased during the forecasting period.
In the euro area, fiscal policy in the majority of economies will continue to focus on reducing fiscal
imbalances, but the degree of consolidation will be less onerous than in the past few years. The debt crisis
countries will continue their adjustment programmes, and any shortfalls due to growth underruns will not be
made up; rather, the timetable for achieving targets will be extended. It is also assumed that no countries will
ask for formal assistance under the European Stability Mechanism.
In Japan, the focus continues to be on improving the budget situation. The original plan was to implement
the second part of the consumption tax increase—raising the tax rate from 8 to 10 per cent— in
October 2015, but the Government announced in November 2014 that it will postpone the tax increase for
18 months.
China is expected to maintain its current fiscal policy stance, which is based on robust expenditure
growth and targeted easing measures to offset weaknesses. Accounting for recently adopted tightening
measures on extrabudgetary activities, the overall fiscal policy stance has become more restrictive than the
official budget figures suggest.