Against a background of less-than-optimal near-term
emission mitigation policies, technology deployment in the
2030 to 2050 time frame was greatly accelerated with nearly
all of the catch-up deployment made during this period. We
calculate physical deployment measures during this period
and show that, in some instances, when the use of CCS is
banned, deployment rates become extremely high if the
long-term goal is to be achieved. With the use of CCS banned,
2140 1.5GWe nuclear power plants would need to be built in
the 20 years between 2030 and 2050. Expansion rates for
other technologies are similarly pronounced. Global land
devoted to bioenergy production, for example, could be as
much as half the size of current crop lands by 2050 when CCS
was banned.
Renewable energy upscaling rates are also rapid. The
median 2030–2050 upscaling of solar power could be 50 to
360 times the year-2011 capacity level (5–14 times for wind
power). Although this result is sensitive to near-term policy
commitments, the highest rate of upscaling always occurs in
the case without CCS. Land requirements for the 2030–2050
solar power upscaling could amount to 0.6–4.5% of the size of
current crop lands (2.3–6.4% for wind power), which is not
trivial.
Expansion rates for CCS deployment, once made available,
were similarly dramatic. Models reported CO2 capture and
storage rates of more than tens of billion tons of CO2 per year
by the century-end from its current level of a few million tons