EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• This article provides an update to Singapore’s growth cycle chronology and examines the performance
of Singapore’s Composite Leading Index (CLI). There were two growth cycles since 2004.
• The first cycle (peak-trough-peak) began in mid-2004, as economic growth moderated following the
exceptionally strong growth in the post-SARS period. The second cycle started in early 2008, led by
the US housing and financial crisis. The subsequent recovery that began in the second half of 2009
was short-lived, as growth momentum faded by mid-2010.
• Our empirical study shows that the CLI maintains its leading properties, and anticipates cyclical
turning points in the economy.