This paper’s findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that
greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution
is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more
than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental
empirical approach is based on China’s Huai River policy, which
provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in
cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using
a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai
River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184
μg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the
north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about
5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased
incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis
suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 μg/m3
of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of
about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).