Mr Putin is betting that he can do enough to shield his core electorate—state workers and inhabitants of provincial cities—from the effects of economic slowdown, while raising the costs for the elite of turning against the system, says Mr Kliment.
The Kremlin will blame the West for its hardship and prioritise spending on salaries, defence and other parts of the state sector. Military spending alone will reach 4% of GDP in 2015, an increase of more than $80 billion from this year.