The Lessons of Thailand's Meltdown
Later this year, Thailand will go to the polls in a national election touted by the government as a major step toward reconciliation between classes and factions following the bloodshed last year. But the election is unlikely to be free and fair. The military allegedly has been working behind the scenes to build support for the ruling party, and if the opposition, still aligned with the exiled Thaksin, does happen to win, it is quite possible the armed forces will launch a coup. This would only further deepen class divides in Thailand and possibly spark all-out civil conflict.
Thailand’s fate is not destined to be repeated in the Middle East, but as in Thailand, the democratic revolts in the Arab-Muslim world could easily get sidetracked. Fighting for change is not easy, and in countries like Egypt, where unemployment is high, would-be reformers could want to return to their businesses and their families rather than investing years or decades promoting good governance.