Research has shown that graduation from college is a better predictor of future success than
mere enrollment (Hollenbeck and Kimmel 2002; Kane and Rouse 1995; London 2004). Some of the
factors that determine graduation among enrolled recipients are the same as those that determine
enrollment, such as individual characteristics, access to college, opportunity costs for attending
school, and taste for education. Two other factors are unique to the probability of graduation. First, a measure of whether the individual uses financial aid is included because qualitative research (e.g.,
Gittell et al. 1993; Thompson 1993) indicates that access to financial aid is a key contributor to the
probability of graduation. Second, a measure of college-welfare sequencing is included. As will be
discussed in subsequent sections, spells that begin when a welfare recipient enrolls in college appear
to differ in some key features to those which begin when a college student begins welfare receipt.