Vietnam's recovery remains on track, with real GDP growth improving to 6.3% year on year in the first half of 2015. We expect full-year growth to pick up from 6% in 2014 to 6.4% and 6.5% this year and next, respectively, driven by stronger domestic demand. In 2016, the ruling Communist Party will hold its 12th National Congress. Economic liberalisation will accelerate and ties with the West will further strengthen if reformists, such as prime minister, Nguyen Tan Dung, secure more top positions.