Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Company Update
SPCG: Lack of exciting outlook - Underperform (16E TP Bt25.50)
Still no excitement ahead…maintain Underperform
Apart from the solar farm in Japan, SPCG is attempting to expand into AEC countries and it has taken a step into Myanmar and the Philippines. The target to boost the solar rooftop business remains unchanged and the company expects that it will become more materialized from 2Q16 onward. However, we still find SPCG’s outlook unexciting for both domestic and outbound business. We maintain our forecast and TP and, despite high upside (around 23%), our Underperform rating is maintained.
Next station: Myanmar and the Philippines
After the first project in Japan was kicked-started, SPCG is moving forward to the next countries. Both Myanmar and the Philippines are suitable for mini-grid projects, which refer to solar farms in an unconnected area with the electricity output generated for use in the area. We remain cautious on the expansion in these two countries due to 1) regulatory risk in Myanmar and 2) geographical disadvantages for the Philippines.
Targeting to boost solar rooftop
Not only does SPCG sell its solar PV rooftop panels for household use through HomePro, it also plans to provide full installation service to factories. The company aims to achieve Bt1,000mn in revenue this year. Nevertheless, the business volume was not impressive last year at around Bt270mn. We estimate that this business will contribute around 4% to the bottom line and our valuation if the company is able to hit the target (we still do not include this business in our TP). Nonetheless, it is not easy to expand the solar rooftop business at the moment since the regulations are still not supportive.
Grabbing opportunity in EPC business
For EPC business, the company is looking forward to the construction of agricultural cooperative solar farms, which were granted a total of 300MW in licenses last month. SPCG has been in talks with a company and a deal should be finalized soon. In our opinion, success in seizing this opportunity will be a one-off since we do not expect there to be new PPA granted over the next two years.
THCOM: Counting down the launch of Thaicom8 - Buy (16E TP Bt38.80)
Earnings momentum continues; BUY maintained
THCOM’s share price YTD is underperforming due to various headwinds, including slow progress of capacity sales and possible additional regulatory fees for license-based satellites. Nevertheless, our BUY rating is maintained as we expect to see developments on capacity sales in focused markets while its valuation is undemanding. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation is insignificantly revised down to Bt38.80 from Bt39.
Thaicom8 is set to be launched on May 26
Thaicom8 is set to be launched into orbit on the morning of May 26, ahead of the planned June launch. This 24-KU band transponder satellite will mainly provide broadcasting and data services in SEA, South Asia and Africa. At the end of 1Q16, THCOM’s presales were frozen at 17%, with the company claiming that it is working on traffic optimization among three satellites located on 78.5 degrees east. If the launch succeeds as planned, the contributions will begin in 3Q16. Thaicom8 is already included in our current model, with the assumption of 40% utilization by the end of this year and reaching 50% within the next 12 months.
2016E earnings estimate cut by 6%
Despite the fact that Thaicom8 will be launched ahead of schedule, our 2016E NP forecast is revised down by 6%. We cut the revenue forecast by 2%, mainly on the satellite business given that a customer went into rehabilitation, leading to a substantial provision in 1Q16. With the growing demand from the broadcasting business, we are certain that THCOM will fulfill the missing slots within a short period of time. Thus, our 2017E-2018E earnings forecasts remain unchanged.
Several overhanging issues will unfold in 2H16
Several overhanging issues ranging from the slow progress of capacity sales to the government’s satellite policy have kept THCOM underperforming YTD. We expect that some of these issues could be resolved within 2H16. These include 1) the extension of the Australian NBN contract; 2) progress on tapping more of the African market after the introduction of a managed services solution; 3) more bandwidth sales to the Indian operator after Thaicom8 is sent into orbit; and 4) additional regulatory fees charged for reserving satellites’ orbital slots. Positive outcomes on these issues would be a share price catalyst.