The dependent variable is the change in stock market value in dollar terms (a measured by the International Finance Corporation's Investable Index) from the end of 1996 to the lowest point of 1998 and to the end of 1998. A comparison in dollars is appealing because this is how most international investors and the IFC evaluate stock market performance. Obviously, the dollar value of markets is heavily influenced by exchange rate movements. However, the correlation is not one-to-one. Table 3 shows the values of this index.
Our regression analysis using macroeconomic variables show very little correlation with stock market performance (Table 6). We report results for four variables that represent the key macroeconomic issues : the current account at the end of 1996, the level of reserves at the end of 1996, the debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 1996,and the budget deficit in 1996. None of the first three variables are significant in any specification. Import coverage and other measures of debt