foreign policy ambition is only one part of the puzzle of
how some states become major powers. An answer to
this broader question would also have to consider others’
reactions to a state’s rising ambition, because these ultimately
determine whether such an effort succeeds or not.
This suggests a dyadic or systemic research design rather
than the one employed here, as well as the need tomeasure
the perceptions of other states. Nevertheless, expanding
foreign policy ambition is an important piece of the puzzle.
Not every state that has broadened its foreign policy interests
has improved its status as a result, let alone become a
major power, but no state has done so without making the
effort. It is undoubtedly true that each state that has gone
down this road has done so in part for idiosyncratic reasons.
It is nevertheless worth asking whether there is a systematic
component to this process. The remainder of this article
proceeds in four sections. The first outlines three explanations
for the pursuit of major-power status suggested in
international relations theory. The second section presents
a research design for testing these arguments.The third presents
the empirical results. A final section summarizes and
concludes.
Explaining the expansion of foreign policy
ambition
Why would a state’s leaders choose to adopt amajor-power
foreign policy? Because this choice follows naturally from
the behavioral assumptions of most international relations
theory, some scholars might consider the question too
obvious tomerit serious attention. Ifmajor powers are different
from other states only in that they have more (and
more effective) policy instruments at their disposal, then
explaining how they acquired these capabilities also suffices
to explain their increasing foreign policy ambitions.Not all
international relations theoristsmake the assumptions necessary
to justify this explanatory leap, however. Existing
accounts of major-power behavior imply several different
explanations. While substantial material power is a necessary
condition for the adoption ofmajor-power foreign policy,
it is not sufficient in all these accounts. Other factors
may be necessary to trigger a powerful state to expand its
ambitions and construct the means to pursue them. This
section will review three explanations for this choice.
Capabilities drive intentions
A long tradition in international relations theory suggests
that a major-power foreign policy is the natural response
to the availability of material power. The claim that
expanded capabilities give rise to more ambitious goals
offers a simple and plausible explanation for the