Abstract
This paper evaluates the saving, investment and current account balances (CABs) of five
ASEAN economies: Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines over the period
1976 to 1997. The method is to apply a calibrated representative agent model of optimal saving
and investment to each of these economies. The model generates optimal saving, investment and
CABs for each year from 1976 to 1997 and these are compared with the actual balances. The
results suggest that three of the ASEAN countries—Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand—had
below-optimal current account ratios (to GDP) on average over the period 1976 to 1997, for most
reasonable values of parameters. This was the result of over-investment for Malaysia and Thailand
and under-saving by the Philippines. For Singapore and, to a lesser extent Indonesia, the reverse
applies—their current account ratios were above-optimal on average due to over-saving. © 1999
Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.