8. Recommendation:
We would maintain a hold recommendation on FPL’s stock. The previous hold
recommendation was based on the belief that FPL would keep its dividends at $2.48 per
share or increase it slightly, and there little reason to believe that this will not be the case.
Merrill Lynch’s own downgrade of FLP was based on the belief that FPL would keep its
dividend at $2.48. FPL’s management has suggested that the dividend payout ratio is
excessive given the conditions facing the industry, but has not indicated a bias toward
cutting the dividend. FPL could maintain a dividend of $2.48 while reducing the payout ratio
provided that earnings increase at a faster rate than dividends, and FPL’s strength in recent
and expected sales combined with its declining expenditures suggests that earnings will
continue to grow. The only evidence arguing in favor of a change in the hold
recommendation is the 6% drop in FPL’s price, but that drop may be unrelated to Merrill
Lynch’s report. FPL’s stock has already decreased by 19.6% over the past nine months in
response to rising interest rates, and the 6% drop may be a continuation of this precipitous
decline. A hold recommendation remains the best course of action despite the day’s events.