The ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine has only been in place
since the start of September 2015, and by orchestrating
this pause in hostilities, Moscow has created for itself an
opportunity to execute a limited intervention elsewhere,
even if its army’s most combat-capable battalions are tied
up inside or near the Donbass war zone. The character of
operations in this “hybrid war” has been such that the
Russian air force was not engaged, so several squadrons of
tactical aircraft were available for deployment in Syria.
The decision to establish an air base in the reasonably safe
vicinity of Latakia was taken in early September (perhaps
immediately after Putin’s return from a military parade in
Beijing). The working assumption was that the capacity of
the naval facility at Tartus was sufficient for delivering
supplies and that the road connection (about 75 km)
between the port and the base was quite secure, so the
bulk of weapons, equipment and supplies for making the
airbase serviceable were shipped in the following three to
four weeks.