The study comes as leaders from nearly 200 nations are crafting a new global climate change accord that is expected to be signed in Paris in December. As part of the deal, all countries have been asked to submit targets for tackling greenhouse gas emissions. China’s contribution is a pledge to peak its climate pollution by 2030 and to curb carbon intensity—emissions per unit of gross domestic product—60 to 65 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
To meet those goals, the Chinese government recently released policies to cap coal consumption. According to the study, almost three-quarters of the growth in global emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 in China.
Guan said he started the research when, about five years ago while doing a different paper, he discovered that official national energy statistics in China were about 20 percent lower than an aggregation of provincial level statistics. In trying to figure out the gap, he discovered that coal consumption was a major contributor, but the data were unreliable.