In short, while abandoning the “three nos” policy right now might not lead to an alliance in two years, it could lead to one in ten years. Getting various constituencies on board in general or planning for specific measures like a new military base takes time in these countries. Thus, it is in Vietnam’s interest to at least start the ball rolling now. Of course, Hanoi needs to buy time for all of this to happen, which will require reassuring Beijing in the meantime which Secretary Trong would be more capable of doing.