The events began in September 1985, when
delegates from the G5 countries met at the Plaza
Hotel in New York, declared the U.S. dollar overvalued,
and announced a plan to correct the situation.1
Th e essence of the plan was that the main current
account surplus countries (Japan and Germany)
would boost domestic demand and appreciate
their currencies. In eff ect, this agreement marked a
major change in policy regime: the Federal Reserve
was signaling that after a long and successful fi ght
against infl ation, it was now prepared to ease policies,
allow the dollar to decline, and focus more
on growth. Th is signal was backed by coordinated
currency market intervention and a steady reduction
in U.S. short-term rates. Accordingly, it triggered an
exceptionally large appreciation of the yen, amounting
to 46 percent against the dollar and 30 percent
in real eff ective terms by the end of 1986. (Th e
deutsche mark appreciated similarly.)
As a result, Japan’s export and GDP growth
essentially halted in the fi rst half of 1986. With the