4. Application of the model
4.1. Scenario definitions
Scenario analysis is an appropriate and valuable use of AgFutures, because many of the
factors that influence agricultural production and the use of agricultural lands are within
the control of local policy makers. For this paper, the model was used to develop four
different scenarios of agriculture for the Lower Mainland:
(i) Baseline (BL) or continuing trends scenario. This scenario is constructed to provide a
picture of the future in absence of any new policy intervention. It assumes that
agricultural development will largely follow current trends. Current policy regarding
preservation of ALR, current diet preferences and management practices are assumed
to continue. Yields are expected to follow current trends. Demands for different landuse
types are based on extrapolation of current trends and projections of diet at the
national level.