History not only sorts decision makers into winners and losers but also interprets
those differences as reflecting differences in judgment and abihty. The experience of
successful managers teaches them that the probabihties of life do not apply to them.
Neither society nor the managers have any particular reason to doubt the validity ofthe
assessment that successful managers have the skill to choose good risks and reject bad
risks, thus that they can solve the apparent inconsistency of social norms that demand
both risk taking and assured success. Managers believe, and their experience appears to
have told them, that they can change the odds, that what appears to be a probabilistic
process can usually be controlled. The result is to make managers somewhat more
prone to accept risks than they might otherwise be.