Figure 2. Simplified land cover conversion matrix indicating the possible conversions
during one time step of the simulation
Locally determined conversions will, to some extent, interfere with the allocation of the
other land use types that are driven by the regional demands due to changes in
conversion elasticity upon locally determined conversions, i.e., the conversion to
agriculture is less difficult for recently abandoned agricultural land than for shrubland.
The resulting conversion trajectories will cause intricate interactions between the spatial
and temporal dynamics of the simulation.
The specification of the model for different land use types, location suitability,
conversion elasticity and conversion matrix is dependent on the specific case study
area, spatial and temporal scale and the purpose of the model. The following section
illustrates the functioning of the model by a specification of the model for the simulation
of land use for the 27 countries of the European Union at a spatial resolution of 1 km2
for
the time period 2000-2030.