Had oil prices risen, the accompanying gain in the value of MGRM’s
hedge would have produced positive cash flows that would have offset losses
stemming from its commitments to deliver oil at below-market prices. As it
happened, however, oil prices fell even further in late 1993. Moreover, declines
in spot and near-term oil futures and forward prices significantly exceeded declines
in long-term forward prices. As a result, contemporaneous realized losses
from the hedge appeared to exceed any potential offsetting gains accruing to
MGRM’s long-term forward commitments