Thailand (Security Rating: 3) - Rice Farmers Threaten Roadblock: Rice farmers in northern Thailand have vowed to escalate their protests after the government failed to meet its promise to complete rice subsidy payments by Jan. 15. Some 2,000 farmers in Phichit Province have threatened to block Pho Sai Ngam intersection on Highway 117 in Bueng Na Rang district (map) Jan. 16.
iJET Analysis: The action will likely affect travel along the primary route between Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan provinces. Additional protests, including roadblocks, are likely in the northern provinces if the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC) fails to make the subsidy payments soon. Under the rice subsidy scheme, the government transfers money to the BACC to pay the farmers. Demonstrations are most likely to take place near provincial government buildings or public parks or squares. If roadblocks occur, they could cause significant localized transport delays. Farmers typically target heavily traveled or intercity highways to maximize disruptions; roadblocks are less likely near major cities. Violent unrest is possible, especially if police attempt to forcibly disperse protesters.