Is the global sugar scorecard starting to turn bullish? Has the market’s month-long slide to 3-4 month lows come to an end??
Reports of recent off-take (China, Dubai refinery, India, Bangladesh) have emerged over the past week. Brazilian cash values have
reportedly firmed. The size of the Brazilian center-south harvest is being marked lower, from previous consensus estimates around
580 million tonnes down toward 560-570 million tonnes. Now comes today’s technical reversal (outside session) from new recent
lows that has October (basis tonight’s close) sitting right at the top of its down-trend channel. Throw in tonight’s Commitment of
Traders report showing the market absorbing a heavy dose of net speculative selling over a fairly well-contained range, selling that
has reduced the non-index funds to owning as small a net long as they have had for more than 3 months (net long 55,000 on
report of March 4), and it would seem to add up to a market posed to, at the least, retrace some of its recent losses. Have a great
weekend.