The Outlook rests on assumptions regarding several issues that remain uncertain, including
the ability of the major resource holders in the region to incentivise investment, by
domestic and international companies alike, in under-explored areas, and deploy new
production technologies, which can be costly, to slow the decline in key fields. Our
projections are consistent with the limited amount of new oil resources discovered in the
region, which has long been less than oil produced. Since 2000, a total of 5.7 billion barrels
of oil have been discovered, less than 40% of the volume of oil produced over the period
(Figure 3.4).