European regulators may have enacted strict bank
capital ratios in order to promote stability, but these ratios
will have serious implications for corporate borrowers. If
banks refuse to extend refinancing on some of the €300
billion in corporate debt coming due in 2012, some large and
highly leveraged companies without access to bank credit
could face financial distress.
With the price of their existing debt increasing and
debt profile shortened, the funding of growth opportunities
for their business would be limited. Stronger companies
will get stronger and the weaker ones, like some of the
retail companies that have been going into insolvency
recently, will disappear or their valuable stores sold at
distressed prices.
Everywhere there is evidence that banks are battening
down the hatches. In the UK, Lloyds Bank is shrinking its
balance sheet and reducing the size of its corporate loan
book. Germany’s Commerzbank has already stopped giving
loans in most of its non-domestic markets and has become
more selective at home, too, reportedly needing additional
government assistance to stay solvent.
Some firms that have been denied access to conventional
credit lines — or are not prepared to wait complacently
until the banks cut them off — instead are creating their
own internal arrangements or negotiating alternative lines
of credit. Private equity houses will follow their investment
if the economics are right. But many will walk away from the
investment if they cannot see a decent return for the new
money required by the investee company and a good prospect
of recovering at least part of their current investment.