It is only in recent years that I have arrived at an
answer to this question. It turns out that for a
satisfactory answer one needs a new theory of dictatorship
and democracy and of how each of these
types of government affects economic development.
Once this new theory is understood, one can begin to
see how autocracies and democracies first emerge. I
shall set out this conception in a brief and informal
way and use it to explain some of the most conspicuous
features of historical experience.