The years at the beginning of the new millennium have turned out to be
some of the most difficult that the aviation industry has ever faced
As we will see in Section 3:3, the industry was undoubtedly heading
for challenging times in any case, but there can be no doubt that the events
of September 11 2001 caused an unprecedented crisis. Armed hijackers
seized four aircraft in the USA, and used these to attack the World Trade
Centre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. Many thousands of
people lost their lives.
The effects on the airline industry were catastrophic. For four days, the
airspace over the eastern USA was closed, resulting in direct losses to
airlines (for which, admittedly, they were mostly compensated). More
seriously still, the fear of further terrorism attacks caused a steep decline in
demand, both in the USA, on international routes to and from the US, and
to a lesser extent elsewhere.
The time since the September 11 attacks has seen little improvement.
The American government, aided and abetted by several others, notably
Britain, has mounted a so-called ‘War on Terror’. This has resulted in
seemingly disastrous interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in strong
support for Israel in that country’s response to what have been seen there as
terrorist attacks. This support was at its strongest in the summer of 2006
when many thousands of civilians were killed as war flared up again in the
Middle East.
Assessing the longer-term impact of the fear of terrorist attack on the
size of the aviation market is very difficult. It is, of course, important to
keep personal political opinions out of any analysis as far as possible, but it
is this writer’s opinion that little was learnt as a result of the September 11
attack, or from those which have followed it. A terrorism threat can only
be addressed by seeking to understand and address the underlying
grievances which caused the terrorist movement to arise in the first place.
The “War on Terror” has simply increased resentment, and has provided
the best imaginable recruitment propaganda for those seeking to foment
extremism. It has certainly worsened and not solved the problem.
This leads to a thoroughly depressing conclusion. We may have to
accept that periodic attacks by the Al-Quaeda organisation, and others that The Marketing Environment 51
will grow up around it will be a long-term feature. Worse still, the aviation
industry will probably be peculiarly vulnerable to these attacks because
many airlines are strongly identified with a particular nation. It is also a
very high profile activity, meeting the terrorist group’s desire for
widespread publicity for their cause.
Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is that September 11 2001 will
turn out to be an extreme case. New security measures may make the task
of terrorist groups a harder one, so they may target aircraft less frequently.
However, the summer of 2006 provided a stark reminder of the problem
with the apparent uncovering of a plot to blow up a large number of
transatlantic aircraft. Weeks of chaos then ensued as new security
measures were applied.
We can now reach an overall, difficult conclusion for Airline
Marketing. In a very real sense, airlines do not have control over the size
of the markets they have available to them because wars and terrorist
attacks – or the threat of them – can have a sudden, strong and negative
impact. Given the growing instabilities in the world political scene, it is
unlikely that this fact will change significantly in the industry’s favour.
The industry will therefore have to accept a growing burden of security
costs. It will also have to understand that demand to travel from those who
do not have to do so will be held back as a result of some people at least
feeling that the airport hassles associated with air journeys just render the
whole exercise too difficult and time-consuming to be worthwhile.
The years at the beginning of the new millennium have turned out to besome of the most difficult that the aviation industry has ever faced As we will see in Section 3:3, the industry was undoubtedly headingfor challenging times in any case, but there can be no doubt that the eventsof September 11 2001 caused an unprecedented crisis. Armed hijackersseized four aircraft in the USA, and used these to attack the World TradeCentre in New York and the Pentagon in Washington. Many thousands ofpeople lost their lives. The effects on the airline industry were catastrophic. For four days, theairspace over the eastern USA was closed, resulting in direct losses toairlines (for which, admittedly, they were mostly compensated). Moreseriously still, the fear of further terrorism attacks caused a steep decline indemand, both in the USA, on international routes to and from the US, andto a lesser extent elsewhere. The time since the September 11 attacks has seen little improvement.The American government, aided and abetted by several others, notablyBritain, has mounted a so-called ‘War on Terror’. This has resulted inseemingly disastrous interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and in strongsupport for Israel in that country’s response to what have been seen there asterrorist attacks. This support was at its strongest in the summer of 2006when many thousands of civilians were killed as war flared up again in theMiddle East. Assessing the longer-term impact of the fear of terrorist attack on thesize of the aviation market is very difficult. It is, of course, important tokeep personal political opinions out of any analysis as far as possible, but itis this writer’s opinion that little was learnt as a result of the September 11attack, or from those which have followed it. A terrorism threat can onlybe addressed by seeking to understand and address the underlyinggrievances which caused the terrorist movement to arise in the first place.The “War on Terror” has simply increased resentment, and has providedthe best imaginable recruitment propaganda for those seeking to fomentextremism. It has certainly worsened and not solved the problem. This leads to a thoroughly depressing conclusion. We may have toaccept that periodic attacks by the Al-Quaeda organisation, and others that The Marketing Environment 51will grow up around it will be a long-term feature. Worse still, the aviationindustry will probably be peculiarly vulnerable to these attacks becausemany airlines are strongly identified with a particular nation. It is also avery high profile activity, meeting the terrorist group’s desire forwidespread publicity for their cause. Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is that September 11 2001 willturn out to be an extreme case. New security measures may make the taskof terrorist groups a harder one, so they may target aircraft less frequently.However, the summer of 2006 provided a stark reminder of the problemwith the apparent uncovering of a plot to blow up a large number oftransatlantic aircraft. Weeks of chaos then ensued as new securitymeasures were applied. We can now reach an overall, difficult conclusion for AirlineMarketing. In a very real sense, airlines do not have control over the sizeof the markets they have available to them because wars and terroristattacks – or the threat of them – can have a sudden, strong and negativeimpact. Given the growing instabilities in the world political scene, it isunlikely that this fact will change significantly in the industry’s favour.The industry will therefore have to accept a growing burden of securitycosts. It will also have to understand that demand to travel from those whodo not have to do so will be held back as a result of some people at leastfeeling that the airport hassles associated with air journeys just render thewhole exercise too difficult and time-consuming to be worthwhile.
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