Note: a
Actual losses represent the losses had Amaranth maintained the positions of August 31, 2006 through the end of trading on
September 21, 2006. b
No leverage computes the VaR based on an investment in natural gas futures equal to the value of the total assets
under management by Amaranth on August 31, 2006 of $10.228B. The Leverage row represents the VaR with Amaranth’s actual
leverage of 5.23 on August 31, 2006. For Methods 1 and 2, the numbers for each confidence level in the table represent the VaR
estimates in millions of dollars using the historical mean and volatility of the winter / non-winter spread trade of 0.7466% and 1.3902%
respectively. For Method 3, the VaR estimates are based on the daily mean and standard deviation of Amaranth’s natural gas positions
for the prior three months. These daily values were 0.0172% and 0.2435% respectively. The “Worst” column represents the losses of the
respective size fund if one uses the worst historical September loss of the spread trade using NYMEX data from 1990-2005. The
“Actual” column represents the actual loss that occurred for Amaranth from August 31, 2006 to September 21, 2006 assuming no
changes were made to the positions held on August 31, 2006.