Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on the
epidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order to
determine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change.
By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0–3.5 o
C, increasing the
likelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission is
likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseases
these lie in the range 14–18 o C at the lower end and about 35–40 o
C at the upper end. Malaria and dengue fever
are among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the most
common vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Health
risks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those that
do not.
Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of the
population in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climatic
anomalies associated with the El Nin˜ o–Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods are
expected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia and
South America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It is
therefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.
Keywords: greenhouse effect; disease vectors; disease transmission; malaria, transmission; Lyme disease,
transmission; leishmaniasis, transmission; communicable diseases, transmission; health surveys.
Current evidence suggests that inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability have a direct influence on theepidemiology of vector-borne diseases. This evidence has been assessed at the continental level in order todetermine the possible consequences of the expected future climate change.By 2100 it is estimated that average global temperatures will have risen by 1.0–3.5 oC, increasing thelikelihood of many vector-borne diseases in new areas. The greatest effect of climate change on transmission islikely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission occurs. For many diseasesthese lie in the range 14–18 o C at the lower end and about 35–40 oC at the upper end. Malaria and dengue feverare among the most important vector-borne diseases in the tropics and subtropics; Lyme disease is the mostcommon vector-borne disease in the USA and Europe. Encephalitis is also becoming a public health concern. Healthrisks due to climatic changes will differ between countries that have developed health infrastructures and those thatdo not.Human settlement patterns in the different regions will influence disease trends. While 70% of thepopulation in South America is urbanized, the proportion in sub-Saharan Africa is less than 45%. Climaticanomalies associated with the El Nin˜ o–Southern Oscillation phenomenon and resulting in drought and floods areexpected to increase in frequency and intensity. They have been linked to outbreaks of malaria in Africa, Asia andSouth America. Climate change has far-reaching consequences and touches on all life-support systems. It istherefore a factor that should be placed high among those that affect human health and survival.Keywords: greenhouse effect; disease vectors; disease transmission; malaria, transmission; Lyme disease,transmission; leishmaniasis, transmission; communicable diseases, transmission; health surveys.
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