anarchy is hierarchy,
which is the ordering principle of domestic politics.
The second assumption is that all states possess some offensive military capability. Each
state, in other words, has the power to inflict some harm on its neighbour.Of course, that
capability varies among states and for any state it can change over time.
The third assumption is that states can never be certain about the intentions of other
states. States ultimately want to know whether other states are determined to use force to
alter the balance of power (revisionist states), or whether they are satisfied enough with it
that they have no interest in using force to change it (status quo states). The problem, however,
is that it is almost impossible to discern another state’s intentions with a high degree
of certainty. Unlike military capabilities, intentions cannot be empirically verified.
Intentions are in the minds of decision-makers and they are especially difficult to discern.
One might respond that policy-makers disclose their intentions in speeches and policy
documents, which can be assessed. The problem with that argument is policy-makers
sometimes lie about or conceal their true intentions. But even if one could determine
another state’s intentions today, there is no way to determine its future intentions. It is
impossible to know who will be running foreign policy in any state five or ten years from
now, much less whether they will have aggressive intentions. This is not to say that states
can be certain that their neighbours have or will have revisionist goals. Instead, the
argument is that policy-makers can never be certain whether they are dealing with a
revisionist or status quo state.
anarchy is hierarchy,
which is the ordering principle of domestic politics.
The second assumption is that all states possess some offensive military capability. Each
state, in other words, has the power to inflict some harm on its neighbour.Of course, that
capability varies among states and for any state it can change over time.
The third assumption is that states can never be certain about the intentions of other
states. States ultimately want to know whether other states are determined to use force to
alter the balance of power (revisionist states), or whether they are satisfied enough with it
that they have no interest in using force to change it (status quo states). The problem, however,
is that it is almost impossible to discern another state’s intentions with a high degree
of certainty. Unlike military capabilities, intentions cannot be empirically verified.
Intentions are in the minds of decision-makers and they are especially difficult to discern.
One might respond that policy-makers disclose their intentions in speeches and policy
documents, which can be assessed. The problem with that argument is policy-makers
sometimes lie about or conceal their true intentions. But even if one could determine
another state’s intentions today, there is no way to determine its future intentions. It is
impossible to know who will be running foreign policy in any state five or ten years from
now, much less whether they will have aggressive intentions. This is not to say that states
can be certain that their neighbours have or will have revisionist goals. Instead, the
argument is that policy-makers can never be certain whether they are dealing with a
revisionist or status quo state.
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