A second potential problem caused by population aging is the strain
on public transfer systems. The old-age transfer system is relatively underdeveloped in many developing Asian countries, so the effects would be smaller than in Europe, Japan, or Latin America, but the effects will nonetheless be significant. In a business-as-usual simulation, transfers of wealth (or implicit debt) would range from 90 percent of total labor income in Pacific island nations, to 240 percent of total labor income in East Asia. If countries in the region were to shift toward the consumption, labor income, and transfer patterns characteristic of rich countries, implicit debt would increase to much higher levels. For Asian Development Bank (ADB) developing member countries (DMCs) as a whole, implicit debt would reach 320 percent of total labor income in 2030, and 540 percent of total labor income in 2050 (Mason and Lee, 2011).
A second potential problem caused by population aging is the strainon public transfer systems. The old-age transfer system is relatively underdeveloped in many developing Asian countries, so the effects would be smaller than in Europe, Japan, or Latin America, but the effects will nonetheless be significant. In a business-as-usual simulation, transfers of wealth (or implicit debt) would range from 90 percent of total labor income in Pacific island nations, to 240 percent of total labor income in East Asia. If countries in the region were to shift toward the consumption, labor income, and transfer patterns characteristic of rich countries, implicit debt would increase to much higher levels. For Asian Development Bank (ADB) developing member countries (DMCs) as a whole, implicit debt would reach 320 percent of total labor income in 2030, and 540 percent of total labor income in 2050 (Mason and Lee, 2011).
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