Rising temperatures are generally expected to lead to an increase in glacial melting, although
increased winter precipitation could compensate for ice loss in some areas (Arnell
et al., 2001). Many simulations suggest that glacier melting will depend strongly on
the rate of temperature change; for example, Oerlemans et al. (1998) predicted that in
the absence of increased precipitation, a rise of 0.4°C per decade would eliminate nearly
all of their study glaciers by 2100, while a rise of 0.1°C per decade would only lead
to a 10-20% loss of glacier volume. Tropical glaciers may be especially sensitive to
global warming, as the equilibrium line between ice accumulation and melting is more
sensitive to changes in air temperature (due to the lack of seasonality in tropical temperatures),
and because glacial melting is significant year-round (Kaser et al., 1996).
Rising temperatures are generally expected to lead to an increase in glacial melting, althoughincreased winter precipitation could compensate for ice loss in some areas (Arnellet al., 2001). Many simulations suggest that glacier melting will depend strongly onthe rate of temperature change; for example, Oerlemans et al. (1998) predicted that inthe absence of increased precipitation, a rise of 0.4°C per decade would eliminate nearlyall of their study glaciers by 2100, while a rise of 0.1°C per decade would only leadto a 10-20% loss of glacier volume. Tropical glaciers may be especially sensitive toglobal warming, as the equilibrium line between ice accumulation and melting is moresensitive to changes in air temperature (due to the lack of seasonality in tropical temperatures),and because glacial melting is significant year-round (Kaser et al., 1996).
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