The global mined diamond supply is estimated to drop to 13 million carats in 2050 from the
projected 133 million carats in 2014 considering a base case scenario. In order to estimate
the production lifecycle of mines in the base case scenario, the primary assumption was that
diamond mines would continue to perform consistently at either their best production levels
or 2014 production levels. This assumption is intentionally made on the higher side ignoring
declining production levels and rising costs of extraction that stump the feasibility of a mine
over a period. In case of the optimistic scenario numbers, the estimates for future annual
production of each existing and new mine is made with an assumption that even after an
open-pit mine goes underground, its annual production will remain same and not reduce.
This assumption provides cushion for any year in future when the annual production is
higher than our estimate as well as covers the optimistic production scenario for the mines.
Also, it is important to note that as mines move underground to sustain production levels,
the geology of Kimberlite pipe does not allow them to maintain the same production levels.
The Kimberlite pipes are carrot shaped and get very narrow as they go deeper.
Approximately 50% of the production at the mines can be lost when mines go underground.
This could potentially translate to a loss of about 30–50 million carats per annum of global
production over a 20-year period8
.