The Elements of Abenomics
The ‘three arrows’ of Abenomics are expansionary
monetary policy, expansionary fiscal policy and
structural reform. The first two arrows form part
of a standard stabilization policy over the business
cycle and are based on the Keynesian view that
government intervention should aim to increase
aggregate demand when the economy is operating
under potential. There is nothing theoretically new
in these two prescriptions.
The third arrow (like Thatcherism or Reaganomics
in the past) focuses on the supply side, making
deregulation of the economy the key to increasing
economic efficiency. This is, like the first two
arrows, not a new idea. The need for structural
reform has been advocated in Japan and internationally
for a long time. The famous Mayekawa Report
published in the 1980s identified a number of
issues relating to structural reform that are at the
heart of Abenomics.
So far, no significant steps have been taken on the
structural reform agenda. The global excitement
and commentary generated by Abenomics are instead
largely due to the impact of Japan’s expansionary
monetary policy on financial markets. In
particular, the BoJ’s new policy of ‘qualitative and
quantitative easing’ released in April shocked the
global financial market. Its announcement of the
policy shift stated:
“The Bank will achieve the price stability
target of 2 percent in terms of the year-onyear
rate of change in the consumer price
index (CPI) at the earliest possible time,
with a time horizon of about two years. In
order to do so, it will enter a new phase of
monetary easing both in terms of quantity
and quality. It will double the monetary base
and the amounts outstanding of Japanese
government bonds as well as exchangetraded
funds in two years, and more than
double the average remaining maturity of
Japanese Government Bond purchases.”
What the term ‘qualitative easing’ means is not
exactly clear. Regardless, the scale of accommodative
monetary policy is huge. Indeed, the BoJ’s
aggressive quantitative easing seems to have been
perceived as a commitment to an accommodative
monetary policy stance far into the future. Given
that the nominal exchange rate is determined by
expectations about the monetary policy stance
(not the amount of the base money itself), qualitative
and quantitative easing have therefore brought
with them a significant depreciation of the yen.
The sharp depreciation of the yen will lift Japanese
competitiveness and boost GDP, in line with the
stated goals of Abenomics.