This paper illustrates the profitability of market timing using technical analysis,
especially the simple and widely used moving average crossover rules. In this
study, the technical trading rules were tested extensively on Thailand’s stock
market index from its first trading day in April 1975 to June 2013. As a part of
market timing strategy, different values of short-period and long-period moving
averages were used so as to determine “buy” and “sell” signals. Returns and
risks obtained under these rules were compared with the buy-and-hold strategy
during identical time periods. After adjusting for transaction costs, there is strong
evidence that market timing following these rules is capa
for an accurate dose determination using the Monte Carlo method.