Rainfall in northern Venezuela (NVE) is highly
influenced by local topography but in general
displays strong seasonality with a May to
November maximum. Rainfall in NVE during
September-November 1999 was unusually heavy
and local downpours the following month lead to
devastating landslides. This suggests that the
heavy antecedent rainfall served to precondition
the soil well prior to the landslide events.
Investigating what factors influence seasonal
rainfall in NVE is the main focus of our study. If
precursors to above average seasonal rainfall can
be identified which exhibit some potential
predictability then conceivably the problem of risk
assessment for the region could itself be advanced.