Evidence is scarce that “deliberate and focused” strategies to increase the harshness of the juvenile justice system
actually exerted a unique and independent influence in lowering juvenile homicide rates. Various scholars and politicians
have touted the success of these measures in reducing crime-understandably so, given the fact that youth crime
rates generally declined after their implementation. But, deeper statistical analysis suggests that the changes in juvenile
homicide rates were highly similar to changes in young adult homicide rates, despite the national wave of legislation
targeted at juvenile offenders. This undercuts the causal claim made by various policymakers, including McCollum
during his defense of the Florida law permitting the JLWOP sentences for nonhomicide offenses.